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Based on analysis of the evolving economics in different vehicle segments and geographical markets, BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 shows EVs taking up 57 percent of global passenger car sales by 2040, slightly higher than it forecast a year ago.
Electric buses are set to hold 81% of municipal bus sales by the same date. For the first time, BNEF has, however, also incorporated in its forecast detailed work on the commercial vehicle market.
Their projections show electric models taking 56 percent of light commercial vehicle sales in Europe, the US and China within the next two decades, plus 31 percent of the medium commercial vehicle (MCV) market.
Heavy trucks will prove the hardest segment for electrics to crack, with sales of the latter limited to 19% in 2040. Their use case will mostly be in shorter-distance applications.
However, conventional heavy trucks on long-haul routes will also face other, non-electric competition from alternatives such as natural gas and hydrogen fuel cells.
“Our conclusions are stark for fossil fuel use in road transport,” says BNEF advanced transport head Colin McKerracher.
“Electrification will still take time because the global fleet changes over slowly but, once it gets rolling in the 2020s, it starts to spread to many other areas of road transport. We see a real possibility that global sales of conventional passenger cars have already passed their peak.”
Meanwhile, the role of shared mobility services such as ride-hailing and car-sharing will be important in this evolving picture.
These services account for less than 5 percent of all passenger miles travelled globally at the moment, but this is set … Read More...